My broader research interests include U.S. foreign policy, grand strategy, Cold War historiography, and international security. To this end, additional scholarship evaluates U.S. relations with Europe and Asia since 1945, and uses new empirical work on post-World War Two great power relations to assess, extend, and update IR theory.
Most notably, my recent International Security article, “Deal or No Deal? The End of the Cold War and the U.S. offer to limit NATO Expansion” assesses claims that the U.S. offered to limit NATO expansion into Eastern Europe during the diplomacy surrounding the end of the Cold War. Building upon new archival releases and IR theory, I find that Soviet/Russian charges of a broken NATO non-expansion pledge have merit. This article received the 2017 Best Article award from the Diplomatic Studies section of the International Studies Association.
The Washington Quarterly also published a piece on the strategic dilemmas NATO expansion poses to the United States in light of growing Russian assertiveness. Other work in progress assesses theories of costly signaling, analyzes the influence of geography on U.S. national security, applies balance of power theory to the rise of China, and theorizes the ways in which allies can entrap one another into undesired conflicts.
Drawing on current policy debates surrounding U.S. relations with its European and Asian allies, my next book examines how states in an alliance shape their partners’ foreign and defense policies, and why these efforts see varying degrees of success. I argue that intra-alliance manipulation is ubiquitous and characterized by efforts to leak sensitive information, go over the heads of allied governments to mold opinion in allied states, and emphasize norms that bring political pressure to bear on allied leaders. These steps tend to work not only when one member of an alliance is dependent on its partners for security – as, for example, characterized West European relations with the U.S. during the Cold War – but also when one ally is distracted by other foreign commitments and fails to counter its partners’ efforts. Counterintuitively, this means that powerful actors may be influenced by weaker allies because strategists assume such influence is unlikely.
PEER REVIEWED ARTICLES, CHAPTERS, & MONOGRAPHS
**Please email me if you need copies of any of my research
"How Long Until Midnight? Intelligence-Policy Relations and the United States Response to the Israeli Nuclear Program, 1959-1985," Journal of Strategic Studies (forthcoming)
"It's a Trap! Allies, Power Shifts, and Entrapment," with David Edelstein, in The Case for Restraint in U.S. Foreign Policy, ed. Ben Friedman and Trevor Thrall (Routledge, 2018).
"Deal or No Deal? The End of the Cold War and the U.S. Offer to Limit NATO Expansion," International Security 40.4 (Spring 2016), pp. 7-44 (lead article).
- *Recipient of 2017 ISA Diplomatic Studies section Best Article Award
- Reviewed via H-Diplo
- Disseminated as part of Council on Foreign Relations podcast
"It's a Commons Misunderstanding: The Limited Threat to American Command of the Commons," with Sameer Lalwani, in Dangerous World? Threat Perception and U.S. National Security, ed. John Mueller and Chris Preble (Cato Institute, 2014).
"The Malta Summit and U.S.-Soviet Relations: Testing the Waters Amidst Stormy Seas," Cold War International History Project e-Dossier, no. 40 (July 2013).
"A Crude Threat: The Limits of an Iranian Missile Campaign against Saudi Arabian Oil," with Miranda Priebe, International Security 36.1 (Summer 2011), pp. 167-201.
"Civil-Military Relations in Israel and Turkey," with Metin Heper, Journal of Political and Military Sociology 33.2 (Winter 2005-2006), pp. 231-248.
"Rising Titans, Falling Giants: How Rising States Manage Declining Great Powers" (revise and resubmit).
"Theories of Costly Signals and the End of the Cold War" (revise and resubmit).
"The United States and the Rise of China: Implications from Balance of Power Theory"
"The Shadow of Exit: Insularity and American Strategic Preeminence," (with John Schuessler; under review).
"Understanding Entrapment" (with David Edelstein).
"Holding the Relationship Hostage: U.S. Efforts to Deter a Soviet Crackdown in Eastern Europe, 1988-1989" in Cross-Domain Deterrence: Strategic Responses to Complex Threats, ed. Eric Gartzke and Jon Lindsay (under review with Oxford University Press).
ADDITIONAL SCHOLARLY WORK
"Sound and Fury, Signifying Something? NATO and the Trump Administration's Second Year," H-Diplo/ISSF Series: America and the World - 2017 and Beyond, July 15, 2017.
"Trump's National Security Strategy: A Critic's Dream," Texas National Security Review Policy Roundtable, December 21, 2017.
"Trump and NATO: Old Wine in Gold Bottles?" H-Diplo/ISSF Series: Trump and the World, September 29, 2017.
"Correspondence: NATO Enlargement: Was There a Promise?" International Security 42.1 (Summer 2017), with Mark Kramer, pp. 186-192.
"Time To Consolidate NATO?" The Washington Quarterly 40.1 (Spring 2017), pp. 109-123.
"Correspondence: NATO Non-Expansion and German Reunification," International Security 41.3 (Winter 2016-2017), with Richard Maass, pp. 197-200.
"Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Views are Actually Pretty Mainstream," The Monkey Cage, February, 2016.
"Correspondence: Debating Decline," International Security 37.3 (Winter 2012-2013), with Michael Beckley, pp. 172-177.
"The Kurds and Regional Security: Assessing Developments since the Iraq War," Crown Center for Middle East Studies Middle East Brief no. 14 (December 2006).
"Review of Daniel Kliman, Fateful Transitions: How Democracies Manage Rising Powers (University of Pennsylvania Press, 2015)," Political Science Quarterly 131.3 (Fall 2016), pp. 656-657.
POLICY REPORTS, OP-EDS, & BLOG POSTS
“Trump, NATO, and Establishment Hysteria,” with Ben Friedman, War on the Rocks, June 16, 2017.
“Russia’s Got a Point: The U.S. Broke a NATO Promise,” Los Angeles Times, op-ed, May 30, 2016.
“Put It In Writing: How the West Broke Its Promise to Moscow,” Foreign Affairs, October 29, 2014.
“Whither Command of the Commons? Choosing Security Over Control,” with Sameer Lalwani, New America Foundation, Policy Papers in Grand Strategy, September 2011.